What Dems Must Do If They Want to Hold the Senate

Withjustamonthleftbeforethemidtermelections,andwiththeRepublicansleadingbysixpointsinRasmussenReports’GenericCongressionalBallot,ithasbecomeincreasinglyclearthatdissatisfactionwiththeDemocratsisgoingtoresultinaswingtotheRepublicansthisfall.



WhileitseemsalmostcertainthattheRepublicanswilltakecontroloftheHouse,theDemocratscanstillholdtheSenate.



TheGOPneedstenseatstotakecontroloftheSenate,andtheyarelikelytopickupsevenoreightseatsatthispoint.Thus,itappearsthatcontroloftheSenatewillcomedowntothreeorfourracesinthebluestatesofCalifornia,Washington,Connecticutandtoalesserextent,NewYork.TomaintaincontroloftheSenate,thePartymustputallofitsresourcesintheseraces.



InWashingtonState,DemocratPattyMurray’sadvantageoverRepublicanDinoRossiisthatshe’srunninginastatethathasconsistentlygoneDemocraticinstatewideelectionsthankstoSeattle’sliberal-leaningKingCounty.



However,whileMurrayhasaboutafive-pointleadoverRossiaccordingtotheRealClearPoliticsAverage,RasmussenReports’mostrecentpollhasMurraytrailingbyonepoint,47%to48%.



Towin,Murraymuststeerawayfromherliberalvotingrecordandemphasizetheneedforfiscalrestraint,balancingthebudgetandreducingspending.MurrayhascriticizedRossiforsayingheopposedthenewWallStreetregulations;sheshouldcontinuetodoso,andemphasizehisstrongtiestocorporatelobbyistsandspecialinterests,andhisveryconservativepositionsongayrights,theenvironmentandwomen’srights.



CaliforniahasalsobeenatraditionallyDemocraticstate,withevenmoreDemocratsthanusualwinningin2006and2008asthesubprimemortgagecrisisbatteredthestate.SenatorBarbaraBoxer’sstrongwinin2004andObama’s61%to37%wininCaliforniain2008ledmosttoassumeshewouldberelativelysafein2010.



However,thebadeconomyhascausedthestate’svoterstoturnontheDemocrats.Boxer’sweakestsupportisintheInlandEmpireandCentralValley,theareashithardestbythesubprimemeltdown.Further,Boxer’sliberalvotingrecordputsheratoddswiththecurrentsentimentsofthevoters.AsofJuly,herfavorabilityhaddroppedto42%,with48%unfavorable.



Justrecentlyasmid-September,theRealClearPoliticsAveragehadBoxerinadeadheatwithformerHewlett-PackardCEOCarlyFiorina.However,Boxer’sleadhasgrowninthepastfewweekstoaboutsevenpointsaheadofFiorina.



WhileBoxermaybemoreliberalthanvotersinCalifornia,Fiorinaismuchfarthertotherightthanthestate’spoliticalmainstream.BoxerneedstoemphasizeFiorina’sextremelyconservativepositionsonabortion,oildrilling,immigrationandguns,andarguethatsheistooextremeforCalifornia,particularlyforwomen.

BoxerparticularlyneedstocontinuetocalloutFiorina’soppositiontoabortionrights–notonlyhasBoxermadethisissuecentraltohercareer,butnoanti-abortioncandidatehaswonhighstatewideofficeinCaliforniainover20years.



Further,BoxermusttellFiorina’sstoryasthefailedCEOofHewlett-Packard:shefiredover30,000workersasCEOandshippedjobsoverseas,whilemaking$100millionandtakinga$21millionseverancepackagewhensheleft.Fiorina’sfailedbusinessexperiencegivesvotersnoreasontothinkshewouldbeagoodSenator.



ChrisDodd’sretirementinConnecticuthaslefthisseatopenforthefirsttimesince1974.TheDemocraticnominee,AttorneyGeneralRichardBlumenthal,hashadrelativelysolidpollingnumbers,buthisopponent,formerWWECEOLindaMcMahon,wonawell-runprimarycampaignthatemphasizedherexperienceasawomanturningasmallenterpriseintoamulti-billiondollarbusiness.

AsamoderateRepublicanrunningduringatimeofanti-Democraticsentiments,McMahonturnedthisintoacloserace.RasmussenReportshasBlumenthalleadingbyfivepoints,50%to45%,andtheQuinnipiacpollhasBlumenthal’sleadatthreepoints,49%to46%.



BlumenthalneedstomakethecasethatMcMahon’sbusinessisbuiltonhumansufferingandfailings.McMahondidnotprovidehealthcareforthewrestlers.Hundredsdiedofsteroidabuseandtherehasbeenwidespreaddrugaddiction.HerstoryisnottheAmericandream,butoneofhorrorandfailure..



Finally,inNewYork,DemocratKirstenGillibrandhasheldontoaleadoverRepublicanJoeDioGuardi,althoughasmallerleadthanwhatistypicalfromaDemocratinaNewYorkSenaterace.TheRealClearPoliticsAveragehasherleadingbyalmost11points,butthelatestpollfromSurveyUSAshowsheraheadbyjustonepoint,45%to44%.

Gillibrandwasabletoavoidanyseriousprimarychallengers,thankstoherbackingbytheDemocraticestablishment,buthercandidacyisnotparticularlystrongandshehasvulnerabilities.Tomakesureshewins,shewillneedthecontinuedsupportoftheParty.



Mostly,however,whatthePartyneedstowinisanationalmessageoffiscalprudenceanddisciplinetohelpgivethesefourkeyDemocratsthecovernecessarytowintheirraces.ThePartymustadvocateabold,centristagendathatfocusesonfiscaldisciplineandfiscalstimulusinitiativesthattargettheprivatesectorandencourageentrepreneurshipandjobcreation.Theymustberesponsivetovoters’desirestocurbspendingandtaxation,andreducethedeficitandthedebt.Ifnot,theSenatecouldfalltotheRepublicanstoo.

DouglasE.Schoenisapoliticalstrategist,FoxNewscontributorandauthorofthenewbook"MadasHell:HowtheTeaPartyMovementisFundamentallyRemakingOurTwo-PartySystem"publishedbyHarper,animprintofHarperCollins.

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